Bayesiansk statistik

Learn the fundamentals of Bayesian modeling using state-of-the-art Python libraries, such as PyMC, ArviZ, Bambi, and more, guided by an experienced Bayesian modeler who contributes to these librariesKey Features:Conduct Bayesian data analysis with step-by-step guidanceGain insight into a modern, practical, and computational approach to Bayesian statistical modelingEnhance your learning with best practices through sample problems and practice exercisesPurchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook.Book Description:The third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection.In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets.By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.What You Will Learn:Build probabilistic models using PyMC and BambiAnalyze and interpret probabilistic models with ArviZAcquire the skills to sanity-check models and modify them if necessaryBuild better models with prior and posterior predictive checksLearn the advantages and caveats of hierarchical modelsCompare models and choose between alternative onesInterpret results and apply your knowledge to real-world problemsExplore common models from a unified probabilistic perspectiveApply the Bayesian framework's flexibility for probabilistic thinkingWho this book is for:If you are a student, data scientist, researcher, or developer looking to get started with Bayesian data analysis and probabilistic programming, this book is for you. The book is introductory, so no previous statistical knowledge is required, although some experience in using Python and scientific libraries like NumPy is expected.

This book provides an overview of the emerging topics in biostatistical theories and methods through their applications to evidence-based global health research and decision-making. It brings together some of the top scholars engaged in biostatistical method development on global health to highlight and describe recent advances in evidence-based global health applications. The volume is composed of five main parts: data harmonization and analysis; systematic review and statistical meta-analysis; spatial-temporal modeling and disease mapping; Bayesian statistical modeling; and statistical methods for longitudinal data or survival data. It is designed to be illuminating and valuable to both expert biostatisticians and to health researchers engaged in methodological applications in evidence-based global health research. It is particularly relevant to countries where global health research is being rigorously conducted.

Bayesian analysis is today understood to be an extremely powerful method of statistical analysis, as well an approach to statistics that is particularly transparent and intuitive. It is thus being extensively and increasingly utilized in virtually every area of science and society that involves analysis of data.A widespread misconception is that Bayesian analysis is a more subjective theory of statistical inference than what is now called classical statistics. This is true neither historically nor in practice. Indeed, objective Bayesian analysis dominated the statistical landscape from roughly 1780 to 1930, long before 'classical' statistics or subjective Bayesian analysis were developed. It has been a subject of intense interest to a multitude of statisticians, mathematicians, philosophers, and scientists. The book, while primarily focusing on the latest and most prominent objective Bayesian methodology, does present much of this fascinating history.The book is written for four different audiences. First, it provides an introduction to objective Bayesian inference for non-statisticians; no previous exposure to Bayesian analysis is needed. Second, the book provides an overview of the development and current state of objective Bayesian analysis and its relationship to other statistical approaches, for those with interest in the philosophy of learning from data. Third, the book presents a careful development of the particular objective Bayesian approach that we recommend, the reference prior approach. Finally, the book presents as much practical objective Bayesian methodology as possible for statisticians and scientists primarily interested in practical applications.

This book provides a self-contained introduction of Stein/shrinkage estimation for the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. The book begins with a brief discussion of basic notions and results from decision theory such as admissibility, minimaxity, and (generalized) Bayes estimation. It also presents Stein's unbiased risk estimator and the James-Stein estimator in the first chapter. In the following chapters, the authors consider estimation of the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution in the known and unknown scale case when the covariance matrix is a multiple of the identity matrix and the loss is scaled squared error. The focus is on admissibility, inadmissibility, and minimaxity of (generalized) Bayes estimators, where particular attention is paid to the class of (generalized) Bayes estimators with respect to an extended Strawderman-type prior. For almost all results of this book, the authors present a self-contained proof. The book is helpful for researchers and graduate students in various fields requiring data analysis skills as well as in mathematical statistics.

Bayesian analysis is one of the important tools for statistical modelling and inference. Bayesian frameworks and methods have been successfully applied to solve practical problems in reliability and survival analysis, which have a wide range of real world applications in medical and biological sciences, social and economic sciences, and engineering. In the past few decades, significant developments of Bayesian inference have been made by many researchers, and advancements in computational technology and computer performance has laid the groundwork for new opportunities in Bayesian computation for practitioners.Because these theoretical and technological developments introduce new questions and challenges, and increase the complexity of the Bayesian framework, this book brings together experts engaged in groundbreaking research on Bayesian inference and computation to discuss important issues, with emphasis on applications to reliability and survival analysis. Topics covered are timely and have the potential to influence the interacting worlds of biostatistics, engineering, medical sciences, statistics, and more. The included chapters present current methods, theories, and applications in the diverse area of biostatistical analysis. The volume as a whole serves as reference in driving quality global health research.  

This book introduces the concept of ¿bespoke learning¿, a new mechanistic approach that makes it possible to generate values of an output variable at each designated value of an associated input variable. Here the output variable generally provides information about the system¿s behaviour/structure, and the aim is to learn the input-output relationship, even though little to no information on the output is available, as in multiple real-world problems. Once the output values have been bespoke-learnt, the originally-absent training set of input-output pairs becomes available, so that (supervised) learning of the sought inter-variable relation is then possible. Three ways of undertaking such bespoke learning are offered: by tapping into system dynamics in generic dynamical systems, to learn the function that causes the system¿s evolution; by comparing realisations of a random graph variable, given multivariate time series datasets of disparate temporal coverage; and by designing maximally information-availing likelihoods in static systems. These methodologies are applied to four different real-world problems: forecasting daily COVID-19 infection numbers; learning the gravitational mass density in a real galaxy; learning a sub-surface material density function; and predicting the risk of onset of a disease following bone marrow transplants. Primarily aimed at graduate and postgraduate students studying a field which includes facets of statistical learning, the book will also benefit experts working in a wide range of applications. The prerequisites are undergraduate level probability and stochastic processes, and preliminary ideas on Bayesian statistics.

This book provides an account of weak convergence theory, empirical processes, and their application to a wide variety of problems in statistics. The first part of the book presents a thorough treatment of stochastic convergence in its various forms. Part 2 brings together the theory of empirical processes in a form accessible to statisticians and probabilists. In Part 3, the authors cover a range of applications in statistics including rates of convergence of estimators; limit theorems for M¿ and Z¿estimators; the bootstrap; the functional delta-method and semiparametric estimation. Most of the chapters conclude with ¿problems and complements.¿ Some of these are exercises to help the reader¿s understanding of the material, whereas others are intended to supplement the text. This second edition includes many of the new developments in the field since publication of the first edition in 1996: Glivenko-Cantelli preservation theorems; new bounds on expectations of suprema of empirical processes; new bounds on covering numbers for various function classes; generic chaining; definitive versions of concentration bounds; and new applications in statistics including penalized M-estimation, the lasso, classification, and support vector machines. The approximately 200 additional pages also round out classical subjects, including chapters on weak convergence in Skorokhod space, on stable convergence, and on processes based on pseudo-observations.

This book provides a quick but insightful introduction to Bayesian tracking and particle filtering for a person who has some background in probability and statistics and wishes to learn the basics of single-target tracking. It also introduces the reader to multiple target tracking by presenting useful approximate methods that are easy to implement compared to full-blown multiple target trackers.The book presents the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and demonstrates the power of the Bayesian method through numerous applications of particle filters to tracking and smoothing problems. It emphasizes target motion models that incorporate knowledge about the target¿s behavior in a natural fashion rather than assumptions made for mathematical convenience.The background provided by this book allows a person to quickly become a productive member of a project team using Bayesian filtering and to develop new methods and techniques for problems the team may face.

Are you an experienced statistician or data professional looking for a powerful, efficient, and versatile programming language to turbocharge your data analysis and machine learning projects? Look no further! "Statistics with Rust" is your comprehensive resource to unlock Rust's true potential in modern statistical methods.¿¿This book is tailored specifically for statisticians and data professionals who are already familiar with the fundamentals of statistics and want to leverage the speed and reliability of Rust in their projects. Over 11 in-depth chapters, you will discover how Rust outperforms Python in various aspects of data analysis and machine learning and learn to implement popular statistical methods using Rust's unique features and libraries."Statistics with Rust" begins by introducing you to Rust's programming environment and essential libraries for data professionals. You'll then dive into data handling, preprocessing, and visualization techniques that form the backbone of any statistical analysis. As you progress through the book, you'll explore descriptive and inferential statistics, probability distributions, regression analysis, time series analysis, Bayesian statistics, multivariate statistical methods, and nonlinear models. Additionally, the book covers essential machine-learning techniques, model evaluation and validation, natural language processing, and advanced techniques in emerging topics.To ensure you get the most out of this book, each chapter includes hands-on examples and exercises to reinforce your understanding of the concepts presented. You'll also learn to optimize your Rust code and select the best tools and libraries for each task, maximizing your productivity and efficiency.Key LearningsDiscover Rust's unique advantages for statistical analysis and machine learning projects.Learn to efficiently handle, preprocess, and visualize data using Rust libraries.Implement descriptive and inferential statistics with Rust for powerful data insights.Master probability distributions and random variables in Rust for robust simulations.Perform advanced regression analysis with Rust's capabilities.Explore Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in Rust.Uncover multivariate techniques, including PCA and Factor Analysis, using Rust libraries.Implement cutting-edge machine learning algorithms and model evaluation techniques in Rust.Delve into text analysis, natural language processing, and network analysis with Rust.

Bayesian Analysis of Etiological Factors for Gallbladder Disease by Richa Srivastava explores the use of Bayesian statistical methods to identify risk factors associated with gallbladder disease. The book focuses on the analysis of several demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors that contribute to the development of the disease.The book provides a detailed analysis of the factors that influence the probability of developing gallbladder disease, including age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, and body mass index. The author uses Bayesian methods to analyze the data and develop models that accurately predict the likelihood of developing the disease based on these factors.The book also discusses the limitations of traditional statistical methods and highlights the advantages of Bayesian analysis in identifying complex risk factors associated with diseases. This comprehensive analysis of the etiological factors for gallbladder disease is a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, and public health professionals.Overall, Bayesian Analysis of Etiological Factors for Gallbladder Disease provides a novel approach to understanding the risk factors associated with the disease and provides insights that can inform prevention and treatment strategies.

"Bayesian Analysis of Probability Distributions" by Kawsar Fatima is an essential reference guide for statisticians, data analysts, and researchers. The book provides a comprehensive overview of Bayesian analysis methods for probability distributions, including advanced modeling techniques and the latest developments in computational algorithms. It covers a range of topics, from basic concepts and principles of Bayesian inference to advanced Bayesian hierarchical modeling and model selection.The book provides numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the use of Bayesian analysis in practical applications. It covers a wide range of probability distributions, including univariate, multivariate, continuous, and discrete distributions. The author also discusses the use of Bayesian analysis in fields such as finance, engineering, medicine, and social sciences.Overall, "Bayesian Analysis of Probability Distributions" is an excellent resource for anyone looking to learn or expand their knowledge of Bayesian analysis. With its comprehensive coverage of probability distributions and advanced modeling techniques, this book is an indispensable tool for researchers and practitioners in many fields.

This book is about silly research studies and how they can both be illustrative of the research process and funny (with the focus on funny). This book has a two-fold purpose. The first is to show that research studies, even with the best of intention, can be flawed to the point of being ridiculous. The second is to show the reader how they can develop their own study, using available software and techniques to develop a new hobby. Have you ever imagined what it was like to perform a research study? Well, here is your chance. Read the book and maybe you can laugh and learn at the same time.

This book presents recent advances of Bayesian inference in structured tensor decompositions. It explains how Bayesian modeling and inference lead to tuning-free tensor decomposition algorithms, which achieve state-of-the-art performances in many applications, includingblind source separation;social network mining;image and video processing;array signal processing; and,wireless communications.The book begins with an introduction to the general topics of tensors and Bayesian theories. It then discusses probabilistic models of various structured tensor decompositions and their inference algorithms, with applications tailored for each tensor decomposition presented in the corresponding chapters. The book concludes by looking to the future, and areas where this research can be further developed.Bayesian Tensor Decomposition for Signal Processing and Machine Learning is suitable for postgraduates and researchers with interests in tensor data analytics and Bayesian methods.

This book introduces some recent developments in Bayesian real-time system identification. It contains two different perspectives on data processing for system identification, namely centralized and distributed. A centralized Bayesian identification framework is presented to address challenging problems of real-time parameter estimation, which covers outlier detection, system, and noise parameters tracking. Besides, real-time Bayesian model class selection is introduced to tackle model misspecification problem. On the other hand, a distributed Bayesian identification framework is presented to handle asynchronous data and multiple outlier corrupted data. This book provides sufficient background to follow Bayesian methods for solving real-time system identification problems in civil and other engineering disciplines. The illustrative examples allow the readers to quickly understand the algorithms and associated applications. This book is intended for graduate students and researchersin civil and mechanical engineering. Practitioners can also find useful reference guide for solving engineering problems.

Neste livro, são realizados exercícios sobre os seguintes tópicos matemáticos:teoria da estimativateste e verificação de hipótesesregressão linearTambém são apresentadas dicas teóricas iniciais para a compreensão da execução dos exercícios.

This book collects select chapters on modern industrial problems related to uncertainties and vagueness in the expert domain of knowledge. The book further provides the knowledge related to application of various mathematical and statistical tools in these areas. The results presented in the book help the researchers and scientists in handling complicated projects in their domains. Useful to industrialists, academicians, researchers and students alike, the book aims to help managers and technical specialists in designing and implementation of reliability and risk programs as below: Ensure the system safety and risk informed asset management Follow a proper strategy to maintain the mechanical components of the system Schedule the proper actions throughout the product life cycle Understand the structure and cost of a complex system Plan the proper schedule to improve the reliability and life of the system Identify unwanted failures and set up preventive and correction action

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

This book provides a self-contained introduction of mixed-effects models and small area estimation techniques. In particular, it focuses on both introducing classical theory and reviewing the latest methods. First, basic issues of mixed-effects models, such as parameter estimation, random effects prediction, variable selection, and asymptotic theory, are introduced. Standard mixed-effects models used in small area estimation, known as the Fay-Herriot model and the nested error regression model, are then introduced. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are given to compute predictors of small area parameters of interest. For measuring uncertainty of the predictors, several methods to calculate mean squared errors and confidence intervals are discussed. Various advanced approaches using mixed-effects models are introduced, from frequentist to Bayesian approaches. This book is helpful for researchers and graduate students in fields requiring data analysis skills as well as in mathematical statistics.