Bøger udgivet af Peterson Institute for International Economics

Fifty years ago, in March 1973, the major industrial economies abandoned fixed exchange rates, conclusively ending the post-World War II Bretton Woods arrangements. Proponents believed their action would strengthen countries' ability to reconcile domestic macroeconomic policies with the balance of payments. But opponents feared it would initiate a new era of instability and financial shocks. Since 1973, much of the world has moved away from fixed exchange rates to a variety of regimes based on considerable exchange rate flexibility. But international trade conflicts and unstable capital flows, along with a rise in financial crises around the world, have nonetheless accompanied the global shift away from exchange rate pegs. How has the international monetary system performed over the past half century? What have we learned from the experience of more flexible exchange rates? What has been the impact on macroeconomic and financial stability in the years since? This book derives from papers delivered at a conference that brought together leading economists and policymakers to debate and discuss these questions, as well as to assess the evolution of the international monetary system, the dominance of the US dollar, and the role of exchange rate regimes in shaping the world economy.

Oil price volatility has been highly criticized on many fronts, from the top-level official to the average consumer. Authorities for both producing and consuming nations have called for mechanisms to restore order to a chaotic market.The author traces the development of petroleum commodity markets, then examines the quest by producers and consumers for stability in world oil markets. He finds that modest producer and consumer gains can be realized through negotiations that achieve removal of barriers to trade, elimination of hurdles to foreign investment, and strengthening of financial institutions.Verleger reviews previous attempts to stabilize price fluctuations of other commodities and finds that these efforts have invariably failed. He argues that the very size of the oil market makes it unlikely that an effort to stabilize oil prices would succeed. Moreover, he shows that an oil price stabilization agreement would impose large costs on consumers.

Leadership selection in the major global economic organizations produced unprecedented levels of public conflict during the 1990s. The convention that awards the IMF managing directorship to a European and the World Bank presidency to an American sparked conflict between the United States and Europe as well as growing discontent on the part of Japan and the developing countries. At the WTO, successive conflicts demonstrate deeper shortcomings in governance as membership expands rapidly and consensus decision making fails. Protracted efforts to choose new heads of these increasingly important organizations have undermined their legitimacy and distracted members from their core agendas. This selection process and its flaws provide a central theme for the analysis and prescriptions presented in this study, which focuses on the major international financial institutions (IFIs) and other global and regional multilaterals. Miles Kahler looks at the sources of conflict and presents recommendations for reform: in the short run, changes in the process, such as the use of search committees; in the long run, the dismantling of the US-European convention at the IFIs and changes in representation at the WTO. The author's diagnosis and policy recommendations have important implications for leadership selection in other regional and global organizations.

The Group of Seven major industrial democracies, at their Naples summit in July 1994, decided to consider "What framework of institutions will be required to meet the challenges of the 21st century?" and "How can we adapt existing institutions and build new institutions to ensure the future prosperity and security of our people?" This volume presents the results of an Institute conference at which leading experts and policymakers assessed the record of the Bretton Woods regime over the past half century and the need to modernize the system now. Specific proposals are made for reforming the international monetary and trading systems, including through changes in the roles of the International Monetary Fund, GATT and the New World Trade Organization, and the World Bank. The volume also assesses the case for creating new institutional arrangements to address several issues that have recently attained greater prominence on the global agenda--investment, financial markets, the environment, and migration.

The Asian crisis has sparked a thoroughgoing reappraisal of current international financial norms, the policy prescriptions of the International Monetary Fund, and the adequacy of the existing financial architecture. To draw proper policy conclusions from the crisis, it is necessary to understand exactly what happened and why from both a political and an economic perspective. In this study, renowned political scientist Stephan Haggard examines the political aspects of the crisis in the countries most affected--Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Haggard focuses on the political economy of the crisis, emphasizing the longer-run problems of moral hazard and corruption, as well as the politics of crisis management and the political fallout that ensued. He looks at the degree to which each government has rewoven the social safety net and discusses corporate and financial restructuring and greater transparency in business-government relations. Professor Haggard provides a counterpoint to the analysis by examining why Singapore, Taiwan, and the Philippines escaped financial calamity. The volume... provides an excellent overview of both the theories and facts of the crisis. Strongly recommended for academic collections, lower-division undergraduate through research.

This study examines the costs and benefits of an aggressive program of global action to limit greenhouse warming. An initial chapter summarizes the scientific issues from the standpoint of an economist. The analysis places heavy emphasis on efforts over a long run of 200 to 300 years, with much greater warming and damages than associated with the conventional benchmark (a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). Estimates are presented for economic damages, ranging from agricultural losses and sea-level rise to loss of forests, water scarcity, electricity requirements for air conditioning, and several other major effects. A survey of existing model estimates provides the basis for calculation of costs of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. After a review of the theory of term discounting in the context of very-long-term environmental issues, the study concludes with a cost-benefit estimate for international action and a discussion of policy measures to mobilize the global response.

Countries that entered the European Monetary Union had to do so at exchange rates that are close to equilibrium levels. So when are exchange rates at equilibrium levels? Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000 discusses the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) method and estimates FEERS for the G7 countries for 1995 and 2000. There have been large swings in all G7 currencies in the last five years, and in these circumstances, the markets and policymakers need better guides to the sustainable levels of these currencies. The authors estimate equilibrium real exchange rates using a partial-equilibrium model based on econometric trade equations, assumptions of trend output, and estimates of the medium-run current account. They emphasize that the FEER is a medium-run construct and contrast it with the purchasing price parity (PPP) method of determining rates. The authors discuss the links between the FEER and fiscal policy and the extent to which the FEER is a normative concept. They conclude with sensitivity analysis for changes in current account and trend GDP assumptions.

This study examines in detail the experiences of three countries that have in recent years operated exchange rate systems of "crawling bands," similar in spirit to the target zones that the author has recommended in the past. Williamson compares the succcessful experiences of 3 countries that have operated crawling bands with 15 similar countries and concludes that the crawling band exchange-rate policy has been an important element in their success. The study includes a manual for managing crawling bands.

Currencies and Politics is the first comprehensive, in-depth comparison of the institutions and processes that formulate domestic and external monetary policy in the U.S., Germany, and Japan. It outlines the differences in policymaking among the three countries and the policy patterns they produced over the postwar period.

This study seeks to resolve the "free trade vs. managed trade" debate. It provides innovative recommendations for US policy based on detailed and rigorous case studies of high-technology trade conflicts between the United States, Japan and Europe in aircraft, telecommunications, electronics and supercomputers.The study addresses three key issues: What trade policy should the United States adopt to support its high-technology industries? What domestic policy initiatives are necessary to realize this goal? Are new international rules needed to reduce trade conflicts over high-technology industries? Tyson, formerly Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, develops a "cautious activist" policy agenda to promote US competitiveness in high-technology sectors and to strengthen international rules to encourage trade and reduce conflicts among nations.

To help overcome its financial crisis, Russia is being urged to create a currency board, which has met with success in other countries such as Argentina, Estonia, and Hong Kong. This study explains what a currency board is and how it differs from a central bank, and examines the advantages and disadvantages of each type of arrangement. The author concludes that currency boards may be quite attractive to small, open economies and a useful prop in those emerging from a very deep macroeconomic crisis, but that their disadvantages outweigh these attractions in most large countries.

The global financial crisis of 1997-98 and the widening US trade deficit have precipitated fresh inquiry into a set of perennial questions about global integration and the US economy. How has global integration affected US producers and workers, and overall growth and inflation? Is a chronic and widening deficit sustainable, or will the dollar crash, perhaps taking the economy with it? If the problem was one of "twin deficits," as many thought, why has the trade deficit continued to grow even as the budget deficit narrowed to zero? If US companies are so competitive, why does the trade deficit persist? Is the trade deficit a result of protectionism abroad? Will it lead to protectionism at home? What role do international capital markets have? Each chapter presents relevant data and a simple analytical framework as the basis for concise discussions of these major issues. The final section of the book provides an outlook for the deficit and suggests alternative policy courses for dealing with it. This book is designed for policymakers and others who are interested in the US role in the world economy. It is also suitable for courses in international economics, business, and international affairs.