Bayesiansk statistik

Learn the fundamentals of Bayesian modeling using state-of-the-art Python libraries, such as PyMC, ArviZ, Bambi, and more, guided by an experienced Bayesian modeler who contributes to these librariesKey FeaturesConduct Bayesian data analysis with step-by-step guidanceGain insight into a modern, practical, and computational approach to Bayesian statistical modelingEnhance your learning with best practices through sample problems and practice exercisesPurchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook.Book DescriptionThe third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection.In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets.By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.What you will learnBuild probabilistic models using PyMC and BambiAnalyze and interpret probabilistic models with ArviZAcquire the skills to sanity-check models and modify them if necessaryBuild better models with prior and posterior predictive checksLearn the advantages and caveats of hierarchical modelsCompare models and choose between alternative onesInterpret results and apply your knowledge to real-world problemsExplore common models from a unified probabilistic perspectiveApply the Bayesian framework's flexibility for probabilistic thinkingWho this book is forIf you are a student, data scientist, researcher, or developer looking to get started with Bayesian data analysis and probabilistic programming, this book is for you. The book is introductory, so no previous statistical knowledge is required, although some experience in using Python and scientific libraries like NumPy is expected.Table of ContentsThinking ProbabilisticallyProgramming ProbabilisticallyHierarchical ModelsModeling with LinesComparing ModelsModeling with BambiMixture ModelsGaussian ProcessesBayesian Additive Regression TreesInference EnginesWhere to Go Next

This book provides an overview of the emerging topics in biostatistical theories and methods through their applications to evidence-based global health research and decision-making. It brings together some of the top scholars engaged in biostatistical method development on global health to highlight and describe recent advances in evidence-based global health applications. The volume is composed of five main parts: data harmonization and analysis; systematic review and statistical meta-analysis; spatial-temporal modeling and disease mapping; Bayesian statistical modeling; and statistical methods for longitudinal data or survival data. It is designed to be illuminating and valuable to both expert biostatisticians and to health researchers engaged in methodological applications in evidence-based global health research. It is particularly relevant to countries where global health research is being rigorously conducted.

Bayesian analysis is one of the important tools for statistical modelling and inference. Bayesian frameworks and methods have been successfully applied to solve practical problems in reliability and survival analysis, which have a wide range of real world applications in medical and biological sciences, social and economic sciences, and engineering. In the past few decades, significant developments of Bayesian inference have been made by many researchers, and advancements in computational technology and computer performance has laid the groundwork for new opportunities in Bayesian computation for practitioners.Because these theoretical and technological developments introduce new questions and challenges, and increase the complexity of the Bayesian framework, this book brings together experts engaged in groundbreaking research on Bayesian inference and computation to discuss important issues, with emphasis on applications to reliability and survival analysis. Topics covered are timely and have the potential to influence the interacting worlds of biostatistics, engineering, medical sciences, statistics, and more. The included chapters present current methods, theories, and applications in the diverse area of biostatistical analysis. The volume as a whole serves as reference in driving quality global health research.  

This book introduces the concept of ¿bespoke learning¿, a new mechanistic approach that makes it possible to generate values of an output variable at each designated value of an associated input variable. Here the output variable generally provides information about the system¿s behaviour/structure, and the aim is to learn the input-output relationship, even though little to no information on the output is available, as in multiple real-world problems. Once the output values have been bespoke-learnt, the originally-absent training set of input-output pairs becomes available, so that (supervised) learning of the sought inter-variable relation is then possible. Three ways of undertaking such bespoke learning are offered: by tapping into system dynamics in generic dynamical systems, to learn the function that causes the system¿s evolution; by comparing realisations of a random graph variable, given multivariate time series datasets of disparate temporal coverage; and by designing maximally information-availing likelihoods in static systems. These methodologies are applied to four different real-world problems: forecasting daily COVID-19 infection numbers; learning the gravitational mass density in a real galaxy; learning a sub-surface material density function; and predicting the risk of onset of a disease following bone marrow transplants. Primarily aimed at graduate and postgraduate students studying a field which includes facets of statistical learning, the book will also benefit experts working in a wide range of applications. The prerequisites are undergraduate level probability and stochastic processes, and preliminary ideas on Bayesian statistics.

This book provides a quick but insightful introduction to Bayesian tracking and particle filtering for a person who has some background in probability and statistics and wishes to learn the basics of single-target tracking. It also introduces the reader to multiple target tracking by presenting useful approximate methods that are easy to implement compared to full-blown multiple target trackers.The book presents the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and demonstrates the power of the Bayesian method through numerous applications of particle filters to tracking and smoothing problems. It emphasizes target motion models that incorporate knowledge about the target¿s behavior in a natural fashion rather than assumptions made for mathematical convenience.The background provided by this book allows a person to quickly become a productive member of a project team using Bayesian filtering and to develop new methods and techniques for problems the team may face.

This book is about silly research studies and how they can both be illustrative of the research process and funny (with the focus on funny). This book has a two-fold purpose. The first is to show that research studies, even with the best of intention, can be flawed to the point of being ridiculous. The second is to show the reader how they can develop their own study, using available software and techniques to develop a new hobby. Have you ever imagined what it was like to perform a research study? Well, here is your chance. Read the book and maybe you can laugh and learn at the same time.

This book presents recent advances of Bayesian inference in structured tensor decompositions. It explains how Bayesian modeling and inference lead to tuning-free tensor decomposition algorithms, which achieve state-of-the-art performances in many applications, includingblind source separation;social network mining;image and video processing;array signal processing; and,wireless communications.The book begins with an introduction to the general topics of tensors and Bayesian theories. It then discusses probabilistic models of various structured tensor decompositions and their inference algorithms, with applications tailored for each tensor decomposition presented in the corresponding chapters. The book concludes by looking to the future, and areas where this research can be further developed.Bayesian Tensor Decomposition for Signal Processing and Machine Learning is suitable for postgraduates and researchers with interests in tensor data analytics and Bayesian methods.

This book provides a self-contained introduction of mixed-effects models and small area estimation techniques. In particular, it focuses on both introducing classical theory and reviewing the latest methods. First, basic issues of mixed-effects models, such as parameter estimation, random effects prediction, variable selection, and asymptotic theory, are introduced. Standard mixed-effects models used in small area estimation, known as the Fay-Herriot model and the nested error regression model, are then introduced. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are given to compute predictors of small area parameters of interest. For measuring uncertainty of the predictors, several methods to calculate mean squared errors and confidence intervals are discussed. Various advanced approaches using mixed-effects models are introduced, from frequentist to Bayesian approaches. This book is helpful for researchers and graduate students in fields requiring data analysis skills as well as in mathematical statistics.

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

Aimed at graduate students, this textbook examines the importance of data analysis to understanding biological, physical, and chemical systems, and outlines its practical applications at the intersection of probability theory, statistics, optimisation, statistical physics, inference, and machine learning.

This open access book provides a comprehensive treatment of recent developments in kernel-based identification that are of interest to anyone engaged in learning dynamic systems from data. The reader is led step by step into understanding of a novel paradigm that leverages the power of machine learning without losing sight of the system-theoretical principles of black-box identification. The authors' reformulation of the identification problem in the light of regularization theory not only offers new insight on classical questions, but paves the way to new and powerful algorithms for a variety of linear and nonlinear problems. Regression methods such as regularization networks and support vector machines are the basis of techniques that extend the function-estimation problem to the estimation of dynamic models. Many examples, also from real-world applications, illustrate the comparative advantages of the new nonparametric approach with respect to classic parametric prediction error methods.The challenges it addresses lie at the intersection of several disciplines so Regularized System Identification will be of interest to a variety of researchers and practitioners in the areas of control systems, machine learning, statistics, and data science.This is an open access book.