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The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

The authors assess the quantum industrial bases of several U.S.-allied nations that are major players in the development of quantum technology, beginning with a global look and then focusing on Australia, the UK, Germany, and Japan.

Senior Department of the Air Force leadership is increasingly concerned that the current readiness assessment system is not providing sufficient insight into the capability of the force to meet future mission requirements because of the shortcomings of outcome measurements. Concurrently, the U.S. Air Force is evolving its training infrastructure in response to the prospect of operations in contested and denied environments, an increased pace of warfare, and the potential loss of superiority across multiple domains in a conflict with near-peer adversaries. Advances in the technological capabilities of training infrastructure can help fill gaps in current readiness assessments to provide senior leaders with better insight into the readiness of the force for future contingencies. To understand how such investments might do so, the authors used a multimethod approach that featured interviews with senior leaders in Air Force major commands and technical experts and included reviews of readiness reporting data and technical documentation. The report identifies current readiness assessment gaps and explores ways to address them through investments in training assets. One finding was that legacy metrics tend to focus on individual units, but the force must be able to integrate well to conduct the full spectrum of possible operations against a near-peer adversary. This requires adjusting training and how readiness is measured to assess how personnel from different units function as teams at various levels.

Migration to post-quantum cryptography to prepare for future capabilities of quantum computing has implications for industrial control and operational technology systems. These implications affect how system owners should prepare for the migration.

This report explores how machine learning can be leveraged to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of competition and conflict as a collaboration between machine learning tools and human analysts.

The authors examine the evolution of individual augmentation--from a stopgap to standard practice--and the effects on the Navy Reserve in terms of readiness and deployment times, specifically relating to anti-terror operations and the 2019 pandemic.

This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

Using the principles of necessity, effectiveness, and proportionality, the authors develop a framework for evaluating influence operations with an initial screening, conducting a full ethical risk assessment, and preparing a justification statement.

The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command's future operations.

This report traces the 70-year history of the Emergency Management Institute from the founding of its predecessor in 1951 to the present. The story of these organizations' development can inform current strategy about the institute's future.

These proceedings reflect discussions among U.S., Russian, and European Union nongovernmental experts who were convened in 2020-2021 to discuss mutual concerns regarding political interference and to find common ground on measures to address them.

This report examines whether the assumption that jointness is inherently valuable to the U.S. military is correct, and if so, in what ways. Understanding how and why jointness is most valuable can help the U.S. military compete more effectively.

The U.S. and Chinese militaries have been shaped by a distinct set of direct and indirect experiences. The U.S. military has focused its energy and resources on combating terrorism and performing counterinsurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even in 2023, U.S. emphasis on major power competition contends with other national security priorities, including current crises and continued deployments around the globe. The People's Liberation Army (PLA), on the other hand, has largely focused its military modernization and restructuring to prepare for a regional conflict that would likely involve U.S. military intervention. Despite having no combat experience since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, the PLA has conducted an in-depth study of all aspects of the U.S. military's technological and operational capabilities-including its organization, command and control, logistics, joint operations, and concepts of operation-since the 1990s. The dichotomy presented by the experiences of both militaries raises several questions about how they are preparing for the possibility of a major power conflict. Since 2001, the U.S. military has gained significant direct combat experience, but has done so against technologically inferior, nonpeer adversaries. In contrast, the PLA had no direct combat experience. Even though its concepts of operation are designed to fight a major power, these concepts are largely derived from indirect observations and lessons from U.S. operations since 1991. The ways that each side gains and processes experience and incorporates it into training will heavily affect readiness for and performance in a future war.

This report examines the effects that changes in laws-meant to encourage turnout and protect public health during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic-had on voter turnout and the effects of in-person voting on the spread of COVID-19.

The authors examine civilian contributions to Ukraine's aims to regain territorial integrity and maintain political sovereignty. Ukrainian civilian resistance also offers insight into future trends in conventional wars for territorial integrity.

RAND researchers hosted a subject-matter expert workshop to determine proposed courses of action to reduce security threats from and meet international standards for prisons holding presumed former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters.

The authors assess the technology and process requirements to support the life cycle of global health engagement (GHE) activities and assessments--from planning to evaluation--and the information- and knowledge-sharing needs of the GHE community.

The authors identify the evolving global health engagement (GHE) priorities of five of the six geographic commands and the challenges they face supporting their combatant command objectives with current funding sources for GHE activities.

This report provides policymakers and developers of machine learning algorithms with a framework and tools to produce algorithms that are consistent with the U.S. Department of Defense's equity priorities.

The authors examine how the Department of Defense (DoD) COVID-19 vaccination program was implemented, determine how previous DoD vaccination programs influenced those decisions, and identify opportunities to strengthen DoD's vaccination program.

Motivated by the future threat to air force command and control networks and forces, the authors identify the demands of future conflicts and consider alternative options for the design of wing-level command and control elements.

In this report, the authors offer a concept of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism. By assessing the threats and prioritizing the functions and means to counter them, it is possible to derive net terrorist threat assessments: in essence, the dangers given a determined set of U.S. counterterrorism capabilities. The authors provide a framework that offers an indicative assessment of competing demands for high-priority counterterrorism capabilities.

This report describes the resilience assessment framework that RAND Project AIR FORCE developed to assess the potential impact of integrating select commercial space services on U.S. Space Force mission performance.

To aid the Air Force Transformational Capabilities Office, the authors of the report developed a data science tool to extract information from free-text descriptions. They demonstrate the tool and foresight methods in three case studies.

In this report, the authors examine how fragmentation within and misalignment between the education and child welfare systems influence opportunities for the cross-system collaboration needed to support students in foster care.

The Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act established an alternative framework for promotion policies for military officers. The authors examine whether shifting to this framework would be beneficial and how it would be implemented.

The authors identify ways to enable the airfield operations (AO) career fields to respond to the needs created by the Dynamic Force Employment concept and the USAF implementation of Agile Combat Employment.

The authors conducted a tabletop exercise to assess the geopolitical implications of Taiwan's semiconductor dominance and the vulnerabilities of the semiconductor supply chain using two scenarios in which China attempted to unify with Taiwan.

To understand the relationship between participating in the U.S. Army Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps (AJROTC) program and longer-term outcomes, the authors analyzed longitudinal student data and Army service member records.