Sandsynlighedsregning og statistik

¿This book constitutes the proceedings of the 14th International Workshop on Statistical Atlases and Computational Models of the Heart, STACOM 2023, as well as the Cardiac MRI Reconstruction Challenge, CMRxRecon Challenge. There was a total of 53 submissions to the workshop. The 24 regular workshop papers included in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 29 paper submissions. They deal with cardiac segmentation, modelling, strain quantification, registration, statistical shape analysis, and quality control. In addition, 21 papers from the CMRxRecon challenge are included in this volume. They focus on fast CMR image reconstruction and provide a benchmark dataset that enables the broader research community to promote advances in this area of research.

Das vorliegende Buch gibt einen Überblick über die Grundlagen der Schadenversicherungsmathematik. Es behandelt in vier Teilen die Gebiete Risikomodelle, Tarifierung, Reservierung, Risikoteilung, und es zeigt auch Querverbindungen zwischen diesen Gebieten auf. Dabei liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Darstellung und Erklärung der einzelnen Fragestellungen und der zugehörigen mathematischen Modelle und Methoden. Dementsprechend werden Beweise nur ausgeführt, wenn sie für das Verständnis hilfreich sind. Jeder der vier Teile des Buches enthält zahlreiche Aufgaben mit Musterlösungen.Dieses Buch ist aus Lehrveranstaltungen hervorgegangen, die die Autoren im Auftrag der Deutschen Aktuar-Akademie (DAA) zur Vorbereitung auf die Prüfung der Deutschen Aktuarvereinigung (DAV) zum Grundwissen Schadenversicherungsmathematik gehalten haben. Die Aufgaben beruhen auf Prüfungen der DAV und wurden leicht überarbeitet. Inhalt- Risikomodelle- Tarifierung- Reservierung- Risikoteilung Die AutorenProf. em. Dr. Heinz-Willi Goelden, Aktuar DAV, Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg Dr. Klaus Th. Hess, Universität RostockProf. em. Dr. Martin Morlock, Aktuar DAV, Universität GießenProf. em. Dr. Klaus D. Schmidt, Aktuar DAV, Technische Universität Dresden und Universität Mannheim Prof. Dr. Klaus J. Schröter, Aktuar DAV, Hochschule Kaiserslautern

This book reports on cutting-edge theories and methods for analyzing complex systems, such as transportation and communication networks and discusses multi-disciplinary approaches to dependability problems encountered when dealing with complex systems in practice. The book presents the most relevant findings discussed at the 23rd International Multidisciplinary Conference on Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication (RelStat 2023), which took place as a hybrid event on October 19 ¿ 21, 2023, in/from Riga, Latvia. It spans a broad spectrum of advanced theories and methods, giving a special emphasis to the digitalization of transport systems, as well as smart, artificial intelligence, and digital twins applications.

Learn the fundamentals of Bayesian modeling using state-of-the-art Python libraries, such as PyMC, ArviZ, Bambi, and more, guided by an experienced Bayesian modeler who contributes to these librariesKey FeaturesConduct Bayesian data analysis with step-by-step guidanceGain insight into a modern, practical, and computational approach to Bayesian statistical modelingEnhance your learning with best practices through sample problems and practice exercisesPurchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook.Book DescriptionThe third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection.In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets.By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.What you will learnBuild probabilistic models using PyMC and BambiAnalyze and interpret probabilistic models with ArviZAcquire the skills to sanity-check models and modify them if necessaryBuild better models with prior and posterior predictive checksLearn the advantages and caveats of hierarchical modelsCompare models and choose between alternative onesInterpret results and apply your knowledge to real-world problemsExplore common models from a unified probabilistic perspectiveApply the Bayesian framework's flexibility for probabilistic thinkingWho this book is forIf you are a student, data scientist, researcher, or developer looking to get started with Bayesian data analysis and probabilistic programming, this book is for you. The book is introductory, so no previous statistical knowledge is required, although some experience in using Python and scientific libraries like NumPy is expected.Table of ContentsThinking ProbabilisticallyProgramming ProbabilisticallyHierarchical ModelsModeling with LinesComparing ModelsModeling with BambiMixture ModelsGaussian ProcessesBayesian Additive Regression TreesInference EnginesWhere to Go Next

This book is the fruit of a study involving Malian SMEs. It is the result of numerous stereotypes indicating that African SMEs are lacking in the use of management tools. Indeed, some analysts tend to support a loyal preference among SME managers for informal (intuitive) management. Others assert the presence of a mixed management style, i.e., straddling the line between informal (intuition) and formal (normative tools). Referring to the general philosophy of the contingency theory of (Affès and Chabchoub, 2007), we support the logic that two companies belonging to the same sector, producing in the same way, of the same size or age will never have the same way of doing control. The study starts from the premise that building a control system generally requires a tailor-made approach (Giraud et al, 2005). It focuses on the analysis of the link between payroll management instrumentation and contingency factors. We use a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative research.

Diese umfangreiche Aufgabensammlung enthält Fragestellungen aus der energie- und wärmetechnischen Praxis sowie aus bestehenden Übungen und Prüfungen. Die Lösungen sind sehr ausführlich und somit nachvollziehbar. Da die Gliederung dem Lehrbuch "Grundlagen der Technischen Thermodynamik" folgt, können Studierende die Inhalte vertiefend erarbeiten und ihren Lernerfolg überprüfen - auch anhand von Verständnisfragen. Diese 3. Auflage wurde um Aufgaben aus dem Gebiet der Strömungstechnik, der Dynamik idealer Gase, der Kreisprozesse, der thermischen Maschinen, der Exergie und der chemischen Thermodynamik erweitert. Daneben haben weitere Diagramme wichtiger Kältemittel Eingang in das Lehrbuch gefunden. Weiter wurden Erweiterungen und Ergänzungen zum besseren Verständnis der Lösungswege vorgenommen.

This book publishes select papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Frontiers in Industrial and Applied Mathematics (FIAM-2021), held at the Sant Longowal Institute of Engineering and Technology, Longowal, Punjab, India, from 21¿22 December 2021. Most of the papers deal with mathematical theory embedded with its applications to engineering and sciences. This book illustrates numerical simulation of scientific problems and the state-of-the-art research in industrial and applied mathematics, including various computational and modeling techniques with case studies and concrete examples. Graduate students and researchers, who are interested in real applications of mathematics in the areas of computational and theoretical fluid dynamics, solid mechanics, optimization and operations research, numerical analysis, bio-mathematics, fuzzy, control and systems theory, dynamical systems and nonlinear analysis, algebra and approximation theory, will find the book useful.

This book gathers selected science and technology papers presented at the 2018 International Conference on Science Technology and Social Sciences (ICSTSS 2018), organised bi-annually by Universiti Teknologi MARA Pahang, Malaysia. Based on the theme ¿Redesigning Education for Industrial Revolution¿, the papers in this book address a broad range of topics in the fundamental and applied sciences, including computer science, engineering, environmental and management, furniture, forestry, health and medicine, material science, mathematics, plantation and agrotechnology, sport science and statistics, covering theoretical, numerical and experimental studies. The book serves as a platform for disseminating research findings by academicians of local, regional and global prominence, as a catalyst to inspire positive innovations in the development of the region. It provides a significant point of reference for academicians and students: for academicians, it is a good source of information to conduct further research; for students, it is the latest point of reference on research conducted in their fields of study. The carefully reviewed papers intend to facilitate the creation of new knowledge through the exchange of ideas, strategies and innovations in various science and technology disciplines, and to contribute towards enhancing the learning environment.

This book provides an in-depth roadmap for qualitative research methods and data analysis across disciplines using ATLAS.ti. It encompasses and rationalizes key qualitative research concepts and methods with innovative frameworks to enrich the reader¿s understanding of qualitative research methods and data analysis. The book contains multiple real-world projects that assist readers in developing conceptual and theoretical knowledge, as well as gaining insights from fieldwork, visualizing data collection, analysis, and methodological interpretations.This easy to use book provides a pragmatic approach to qualitative methods, proficiency in capturing field observations, user-friendly steps to data analysis starting from transcription, preparation of data, reading and identification of quotations, coding, memoing, commenting, code groups, creating smart codes and groups using set, semantic, and proximity operators resulting in generating numerous insightful thematic reports in avariety of formats.More notable features:- Demonstrates systematic roots to research from begin to end- Provides practical advice on how to overcome field challenges during data collection, ethical considerations, and step-by-step procedures for gaining access to participants and capturing holistic data- Includes numerous numerical arguments, interpretations, and explanations for concepts, themes, variables, networks, and emerging concepts- Includes several research frameworks and data analysis guideposts on real-world research projects with thorough procedures covering 267 images and 38 tables- Compelling for quantitative research and mixed methods approachesThe book's straightforward and user-friendly format makes it simple and easy to use, comprehend, and interpret for anyone working with ATLAS.ti.

This book is designed as a gentle introduction to the fascinating field of choice modeling and its practical implementation using the R language. Discrete choice analysis is a family of methods useful to study individual decision-making. With strong theoretical foundations in consumer behavior, discrete choice models are used in the analysis of health policy, transportation systems, marketing, economics, public policy, political science, urban planning, and criminology, to mention just a few fields of application. The book does not assume prior knowledge of discrete choice analysis or R, but instead strives to introduce both in an intuitive way, starting from simple concepts and progressing to more sophisticated ideas. Loaded with a wealth of examples and code, the book covers the fundamentals of data and analysis in a progressive way. Readers begin with simple data operations and the underlying theory of choice analysis and conclude by working with sophisticated models including latent class logit models, mixed logit models, and ordinal logit models with taste heterogeneity. Data visualization is emphasized to explore both the input data as well as the results of models. This book should be of interest to graduate students, faculty, and researchers conducting empirical work using individual level choice data who are approaching the field of discrete choice analysis for the first time. In addition, it should interest more advanced modelers wishing to learn about the potential of R for discrete choice analysis. By embedding the treatment of choice modeling within the R ecosystem, readers benefit from learning about the larger R family of packages for data exploration, analysis, and visualization.

This book aims to work out the distributed economic operation in smart grids in a systematic way, which ranges from model-based to model-free perspectives. The main contributions of this book can be summarized into three folds. First, we investigate the fundamental economic operation problems in smart grids from model-based perspective. Specifically, these problems can be modeled as deterministic optimization models, and we propose some distributed optimization algorithms by integrating the multi-agent consensus theory and optimization techniques to achieve the distributed coordination of various generation units and loads. Second, due to the randomness of the large-scale renewable energies and the flexibility of the loads, we further address these economic operation problems from a model-free perspective, and we propose learning-based approaches to address the uncertainty and randomness. At last, we extend the idea of model-based and model-free algorithms to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) charging/discharging scheduling problem, the key challenge of which involves multiple objectives simultaneously while the behavior of PEVs and the electricity price are intrinsically random. This book presents several recent theoretical findings on distributed economic operation in smart grids from model-based and model-free perspectives. By systematically integrating novel ideas, fresh insights, and rigorous results, this book provides a base for further theoretical research on distributed economic operation in smart grids. It can be a reference for graduates and researchers to study the operation and management in smart grids. Some prerequisites for reading this book include optimization theory, matrix theory, game theory, reinforcement learning, etc.

This book provides a highly practical introduction to Bayesian statistical modeling with Stan, which has become the most popular probabilistic programming language.The book is divided into four parts. The first part reviews the theoretical background of modeling and Bayesian inference and presents a modeling workflow that makes modeling more engineering than art. The second part discusses the use of Stan, CmdStanR, and CmdStanPy from the very beginning to basic regression analyses. The third part then introduces a number of probability distributions, nonlinear models, and hierarchical (multilevel) models, which are essential to mastering statistical modeling. It also describes a wide range of frequently used modeling techniques, such as censoring, outliers, missing data, speed-up, and parameter constraints, and discusses how to lead convergence of MCMC. Lastly, the fourth part examines advanced topics for real-world data: longitudinal data analysis, state space models, spatial data analysis, Gaussian processes, Bayesian optimization, dimensionality reduction, model selection, and information criteria, demonstrating that Stan can solve any one of these problems in as little as 30 lines.Using numerous easy-to-understand examples, the book explains key concepts, which continue to be useful when using future versions of Stan and when using other statistical modeling tools. The examples do not require domain knowledge and can be generalized to many fields. The book presents full explanations of code and math formulas, enabling readers to extend models for their own problems. All the code and data are on GitHub.

NAMED A MOST-ANTICIPATED BOOK OF 2024 BY FT, The Guardian, and The Sunday TimesFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes   In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates “the River,” the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. Most of us don’t have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers—paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—and the flaws in their thinking— is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers.

Petri nets model concurrent and distributed systems where active components communicate through the production and absorption of various kinds of resources. Although the dynamic properties of such systems may be very complex, they may sometimes be connected to the static structure of a Petri net. Many properties are decidable, but their complexity may be huge. It is often opportune to restrict oneself to classes of systems, to partial algorithms, and to similar but simpler properties. Instead of analysing a given system, it is also possible to search for a system satisfying some desired properties by construction. This comprehensive textbook/reference presents and discusses these issues in-depth in the context of one of the most fundamental Petri net models, called place/transition nets. The presentation is fortified by means of many examples and worked exercises. Among topics addressed: ¿ In which order may actions may be generated and scheduled? ¿ What states and configurations may be reached in a concurrent system? ¿ Which interesting classes of systems can be analysed relatively efficiently? ¿ Is it possible to synthesise a system of some class from its behaviour? ¿ How can systems be represented algebraically, compositionally, and concisely? This unique text, based on introductory as well as on advanced courses on distributed systems, will serve as an invaluable guide for students and (future) researchers interested in theoretical¿as well as in practical¿aspects of Petri nets and related system models. Eike Best has been a full professor (now retired) affiliated to Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Germany. Raymond Devillers has been a full professor (now retired) affiliated to Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium. The authors have a long record as collaborators in the fields of Petri nets and the semantics of concurrency.

This textbook introduces quantitative methods in operations management, based on operational research. Written for undergraduate and graduate students as well as practitioners, this book serves as a valuable compendium of essential tools for project planning, control, and strategic decision-making.Drawing from the expertise of both experienced scientists and seasoned practical managers, the descriptions of each tool are a harmonious blend of theoretical insights and real-world applicability. With a focus on accessibility, the authors have thoughtfully combined abstract concepts with easy-to-follow examples and detailed case studies.Readers will benefit from the abundance of well-explained recommendations and practical problem-solving approaches, where the book offers guidance on how to solve presented issues by using commercial software. Whether one seeks to refine project management, optimize operations, or make strategic choices, this book equips readers with theknowledge and proficiency required to excel in the dynamic field of operations management.

Statistik und Wahrscheinlichkeit ¿ leicht gemachtist ein Lehr- und Nachschlagewerkfür Schule, Studium und Beruf.Das Buch ist zum Selbststudium geeignet.Alle wichtigen Begriffe, Regeln und Methodenwerden in verständlicher Form dargestellt,in Handlungsanweisungen übertragen undan Beispielen erläutertJedes Kapitel derDatenanalyseStatistikRegressionKombinatorikWahrscheinlichkeitDichte- und VerteilungsfunktionenTestkonzeptionHypothesentestsBayes-Statistikwird durch Übungsaufgaben mitvollständigem Lösungsweg komplettiert.

"This collection of four short courses looks at group representations, graph spectra, statistical optimality, and symbolic dynamics, highlighting their common roots in linear algebra. Aimed at researchers and beginning Ph.D. students, it includes copious exercises, notes, and references, leading the reader from the basics to high-level applications"--

The book introduces a finance calibration issue, aiming to determine model parameters using observed option prices. It delves into using intricate models like multi-dimensional jump diffusion with stochastic volatility to price European and Quanto options. Several numerical techniques¿integro-differential stochastic equations, finite elements, Monte Carlo, and Quasi Monte Carlo methods¿are examined for pricing. The Tikhonov regularization method is proposed to solve the calibration problem by converting it into an inverse problem of partial differential equations, solvable via numerical methods. Additionally, it explores the role of the optimal control framework in establishing conditions to minimize cost functionals. Despite the challenges in estimation, the model displays promise in calibration, exhibiting accuracy in theoretical outcomes and numerical experiments, demonstrating potential risk reduction capabilities.

This book describes, extends, and illustrates the metrics of binary classification through worked examples.Worked examples based on pragmatic test accuracy study data are used in chapters to illustrate relevance to day-to-day clinical practice. Readers will gain an understanding of sensitivity and specificity and predictive values along with many other parameters.The contents are highly structured, and the use of worked examples facilitates understanding and interpretation.This book is a resource for clinicians in any discipline who are involved in the performance or assessment of test accuracy studies and professionals in the disciplines of machine learning or informatics wishing to gain insight into clinical applications of 2x2 tables.

This book provides a guide to such budding social researchers, who are non-native English speakers drawing examples from literature to show how to conduct a research, present research results, integrate with existing literature to draw conclusions through real-world examples. Existing English books teaching research methods and philosophy of academic research are written in `academic English¿ and, it is hard for non-native English-speaking budding researchers to study and understand those books. Also, this book uses examples to show how to communicate with journal editors and peer reviewers to get published the research results as journal articles, book chapters or conference papers.This book connects different quantitative techniques, qualitative methodologies (case studies, phenomenology and ethnography and Grounded theory) as well as Mixed methods methodology through a single example. This book attempts to describe a holistic approach introducing a 10Ps model that incorporates the essential elements of the research process. The process focuses on combining philosophical framework and arguments from research results.This book focuses not only on conducting a research project, but also on the approach and procedures to be followed to achieve higher marks for course work assignments and publishing research articles in international journals.This book shows how to create many papers from one research/data set to increase number of publications and citations. This book has fewer words and more illustrations, tables, figures, pictures and YouTube tutorial links.This book outlines how to present test results in APA style for all the statistical test used in this book, using examples.

Book Title: A Symphony of Time and SpaceUnveil the Future: A Symphony of Time and SpaceWelcome to the compelling world of "A Symphony of Time and Space," a thought-provoking masterpiece that delves into the intricacies of transit-oriented development. This groundbreaking book, with its roots firmly planted in the Independence Centre Master Plan, takes readers on a captivating journey through the potential of a 130-acre site surrounding the MBTA commuter rail station in Kingston, MA.Unveiling the Conceptual PlanA Blueprint for SuccessAdvocacy for ChangeThe Author's VisionIn the preface, the author lays bare the purpose behind this visionary work. The Independence Centre Master Plan is not just a document; it's a call to action. Through compelling storytelling and well-researched insights, readers are invited to explore a future where time, space, and development harmonize in a symphony of progress.Don't miss your chance to be part of a transformative experience. Grab your copy of "A Symphony of Time and Space" today and embark on a journey towards a sustainable and harmonious future.