Developing a National Recruiting Difficulty Index - Jeffrey B Wenger - Bog

The U.S. Army recognizes that the recruiting environment has a significant impact on its ability to recruit, especially when the unemployment rate is lower, casualty rates increase, or operational difficulties mount. This report presents a forecasting model that provides a measure of the recruiting difficulty with up to a 24-month horizon. The resulting model forecasts whether the Army is likely to face a difficult or easy recruiting environment.