Our Digital Future - William Webb - Bog

Alluring visions of the future abound, yet those flying cars have not filled our skies and the smart fridge is more of a joke than a reality. But digital technology has changed our lives completely - for the better and the worse - with always-on connectivity, Facebook, Uber and so much more. With jobs potentially at threat and political instability rising, correctly predicting our digital future is more important than even. Professor Webb has an outstanding track record of forecasting over the last 20 years and applies the same pragmatic realism to the next 20. Chapter one starts by looking at what is, and what is not included. Chapter two looks at books on magic and on science fiction to see what their authors imagined in a world where anything might be possible. Chapter three looks at previous predictions to see if there are systematic errors that might be avoided. Chapter four looks at areas of technology where there might be rapid improvements, and in particular those which might enable progress across many areas. It concludes that key future enablers will include the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and perhaps robotics. The next five chapters look at different environments such as the home, work, leisure and public services. The chapters show that in some cases such as the home and public services, change will be slow and minimal, whereas in others such as work and leisure, much more significant changes can be expected. Chapter ten asks whether societal issues might have an impact. There is a growing backlash against some aspects of digital which might slow the pace of change. The chapter broadly concludes that although there is disquiet, it will be insufficient to make much difference except in specific cases such as terms of employment. Chapter eleven then brings it all together with a set of predictions looking 10, 20 and 30 years out. The change notice by the individual may be relatively small compared to the change of the last 30 years. Individuals will see an ever-better virtual assistant functionality from their devices using emerging AI techniques. In the home some new connected devices such as smart speakers and home IoT products will be installed but home automation will not improve much. Leisure interests will expand, with each genre gaining apps, on-line communities, additional functionality and monitoring from IoT devices. This will allow us to spend more time on our favourite pastimes, as indeed we may need to if enhanced productivity and automation leads to fewer jobs. In business, the office will see widespread deployment of IoT, biometrics and robotics, mostly as a way to save costs on administrative and maintenance staff. Some sectors will make extensive use of IoT to improve productivity such as agriculture and manufacturing. Some will decline further due to changing habits such as retail. Some will be broadly unaffected such as construction and hospitality. Vehicle maintenance, which is currently a huge employer, may decline as more electric vehicles are introduced. Transport will not change materially other than we will be better connected while travelling, have more journey information and see a gradual growth in driverless vehicles (cars, trains, buses, etc). In essence, the key gains will be in convenience, productivity and reliability. The world will be a similar place to today, but will work better. Finally, chapter twelve looks at the impact that a world of this form would have on the structure of industry, predicting that today's large digital companies such as Google and Amazon will continue to dominate well into the future. New players such as Uber and Tesla will emerge but at a slowing rate. A few, such as Facebook, might struggle as regulation bites. Connectivity providers such as mobile operators will become utility-like, and their manufacturers will suffer.